1. 2016

   ERS research explores how investments in rural people, business, and communities affect the capacity of rural economies to prosper in the new and changing global marketplace. The agency analyzes how demographic trends, employment opportunities, Federal policies, and public investment in infrastructure and technology enhance economic opportunity and quality of life for rural Americans. Equally important is ERS’s commitment to help enhance the quality of life for the Nation’s small farmers who increasingly depend on these rural economies for employment and economic support, as well as to analyze new developments in the linkages between these farmers, consumers, and local economies.

   ERS continues to monitor changing economic and demographic trends in rural America, particularly the implications of these changes for the employment, education, income, and housing patterns of low-income rural populations. The rural development process is complex and sensitive to a wide range of factors that, to a large extent, are unique to each rural community. Nonetheless, ERS assesses general approaches to development to determine when, where, and under what circumstances rural development strategies will be most successful.

   ERS research and analysis provide insight into market conditions facing U.S. agriculture, avenues for innovation, and market expansion to help farmers and ranchers manage risk. ERS produces USDA’s estimates of farm income. In addition, the ERS program identifies and analyzes market structure and technological developments that affect efficiency and profitability, and examines developments in the linkages.

   The ERS climate change research program develops models and other analytical techniques to predict responses of farmers to greenhouse gas mitigation options, analyze the impact of mitigation options on domestic and global agricultural markets and land and water use, and evaluate adaptation by farmers to a new climate regime through use of alternative technologies. The ERS climate change research program builds on extensive expertise on the economics of land use and land management, technology adoption, conservation program design, economics of biofuels, and value and dissemination of public investment in research and development.

   In addition, ERS is continuing to contribute to USDA’s efforts to improve the science behind Federal environmental, water and air quality regulations and programs. As part of its analysis of environmental regulations and conservation incentive policies, ERS research continues to provide insight into developing policies for controlling nonpoint source pollution. More generally, ERS research analyzes the economic efficiency, environmental effectiveness, and distributional implications of alternative designs of resource, conservation, environmental, and commodity programs and their linkages.

   ERS conducts research on technological innovation in agriculture, the economic performance, structure and viability of the farm sector and of different types of farms, and the state of global food security. ERS effectively communicates research findings to policy makers, program managers, and those shaping the public debate. The research program identifies key economic issues and uses sound analytical techniques to understand the immediate and broader economic and social consequences of alternative policies and programs related to the sustainability and use of biotechnology in U.S. agriculture, including policies to promote trade of U.S. products.

   ERS has a broad program of work examining the production and marketing characteristics of the U.S. organic sector. Ongoing activities include research on the adoption of certified organic farming systems across the U.S., analysis of consumer demand and prices in specific markets, and several nationwide surveys of organic producers and markets.

   The ERS research program includes an ongoing assessment of global food security. ERS provides research, analysis, and information on food security, including factors affecting food production and ability to import food, in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth of Independent States to decision makers in the United States and throughout the world. An annual report provides an up-to-date assessment of global food security. ERS research on the farm and rural economy found the following: –ERS farm income indicators and forecasts measure the financial performance of the U.S. farm sector. –Farming is still an industry of family businesses. –The ERS commodity outlook program serves USDA stakeholders in the public and private sectors by delivering timely, independent and objective information about agricultural markets. –Rural child poverty rose from 19 percent in 1999 to 26 percent by 2013. –A variety of factors lead migrants to return to their rural home communities. –A disproportionately small share of grants by large foundations were disbursed to rural recipients during 2005 to 2010.

   ERS research and analysis of U.S. agricultural markets found the following: –Producer participation in local food systems and the value of local food sales are growing. –Most land in farms is operated by the land owner. –Mandatory price reporting for livestock transactions over the past 15 years led to some improvements in price discovery and market efficiency. –Renewable energy policies have emerged as key drivers in global markets for biofuels. –ERS estimates that the effects of recent decreases in energy prices on acreage and production are relatively small.

   ERS research on climate change found the following: –Climate change is likely to increase the use of genetic resources for adaptation to heat and drought stress.

   ERS research on conservation, water, and environmental issues found the following: –Implementation of the Evidence and Innovation Agenda continues as experiments are used to test existing and new approaches to program delivery. –ERS research examined the issues related to the declining effectiveness of glyphosate and choices for managing increased resistance to it. –The cost, biophysical impacts, and benefit valuation of wetland restoration and protection efforts vary widely from place to place, depending on a host of factors. –The 2012-2015 droughts in California are having a major impact on agriculture. A variety of mechanisms influence how those impacts are felt by farmers, crop and livestock consumers, and the food sector.

   ERS research on the organic sector found the following: –Organic field crops have been profitable compared with conventional field crops primarily due to the significant price premiums paid for certified organic production that more than offset the additional economic costs.

   ERS research on global food security found the following: –Food security is projected to improve for many developing countries. –ERS research suggests that households do not distribute calories equitably across all household members in developing countries, and that the depth of undernourishment for certain household members may be greater than traditional household consumption surveys suggest.

   ERS research on global agricultural markets found the following: –USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024 suggest long run increases in global consumption, world trade, and agricultural commodity prices. –The joint effects of sanitary and phytosanitary measures and tariff rate quotas maintained by the European Union (EU) significantly impede U.S. meat exports. –Easing trade and travel restrictions could stimulate increased levels and a wider variety of U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba. –China’s accumulation of large cotton stockpiles to support prices for its domestic producers from 2011-2013 has introduced a new degree of uncertainty into world cotton markets.

2. 2017

   ERS research explores how investments in rural people, business, and communities affect the capacity of rural economies to prosper in the new and changing global marketplace. The agency analyzes how demographic trends, employment opportunities, Federal policies, and public investment in infrastructure and technology enhance economic opportunity and quality of life for rural Americans. Equally important is ERS’s commitment to help enhance the quality of life for the Nation’s farmers who increasingly depend on these rural economies for employment and economic support, as well as to analyze new developments in the linkages between these farmers, consumers, and local economies.

   ERS continues to monitor changing economic and demographic trends in rural America, particularly the implications of these changes for the employment, education, income, and housing patterns of low-income rural populations. The rural development process is complex and sensitive to a wide range of factors that, to a large extent, are unique to each rural community. Nonetheless, ERS assesses general approaches to development to determine when, where, and under what circumstances rural development strategies will be most successful.

   ERS research and analysis provide insight into market conditions facing U.S. agriculture, potential avenues for innovation and market expansion, and strategies for managing risk. ERS produces USDA’s estimates of farm income. In addition, the ERS program identifies and analyzes market structure and technological developments that affect efficiency and profitability.

   The ERS climate change research program develops models and other analytical techniques to predict responses of farmers to greenhouse gas mitigation options, analyze the impact of mitigation options on domestic and global agricultural markets and land and water use, and evaluate adaptation by farmers to a new climate regime through use of alternative technologies. The ERS climate change research program builds on extensive expertise on the economics of land use and land management, technology adoption, conservation program design, economics of biofuels, and value and dissemination of public investment in research and development.

   In addition, ERS is continuing to contribute to USDA’s efforts to improve the science behind Federal environmental, water and air quality regulations and programs. As part of its analysis of environmental regulations and conservation incentive policies, ERS research continues to provide insight into developing policies for controlling nonpoint source pollution. More generally, ERS research analyzes the economic efficiency, environmental effectiveness, and distributional implications of alternative designs of resource, conservation, environmental, and commodity programs and their linkages. ERS conducts research on technological innovation in agriculture, the economic performance, structure and viability of the farm sector and of different types of farms, and the state of global food security. ERS effectively communicates research findings to policy makers, program managers, and those shaping the public debate. The research program identifies key economic issues and uses sound analytical techniques to understand the immediate and broader economic and social consequences of alternative policies and programs related to the sustainability and use of biotechnology in U.S. agriculture, including policies to promote trade of U.S. products.

   ERS has a broad program of work examining the production and marketing characteristics of the U.S. organic sector. Ongoing activities include research on the adoption of certified organic farming systems across the U.S., analysis of consumer demand and prices in specific markets, and surveys of organic producers and markets.

   The ERS research program includes an ongoing assessment of global food security. ERS provides research, analysis, and information on food security, including factors affecting food production and ability to import food, in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth of Independent States to decision makers in the United States and throughout the world. ERS is also investigating conceptual and measurement challenges inherent in assessments of undernourishment at the country, household, and individual level with experts in academia and international organizations. An annual report provides ERS’ up-to-date assessment of global food security.

3. 2020

   Selected Examples of Recent Progress: Farm income indicators and forecasts measure the financial performance of the U.S. farm sector. ERS provides authoritative information on the financial health of the farm sector, including the performance of farm businesses and well-being of farm households. In the most recent statement, ERS forecasted a 4.8 percent increase in 2019 net farm income relative to 2018 estimates. Over the same time period, the median income of farm operator households is expected to increase 3.7 percent. Published three times a year, these core statistical indicators provide guidance to policy makers, lenders, commodity organizations, farmers, and others interested in the financial status of the farm economy. ERS’s farm income statistics also inform the computation of agriculture’s contribution to the gross domestic product for the U.S. economy in the Bureau of Economic Analysis statistics for Gross Domestic Product. In 2019, ERS briefed the Secretary of Agriculture on the findings on September 10, all USDA sub-cabinet officials on September 25, and the Assistant Secretary of Civil Rights on November 12.

   SNAP redemptions have impacts on county-level employment. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the third-largest means-tested Federal program (in terms of outlays) and the largest USDA program. Payments nearly quadrupled between 2001 and 2013, in part due to changes in policies intended to stimulate the economy during and after the Great Recession. An ERS report examined the impact on county-level employment that may have occurred as a result of the increase in payments. Over the entire 2001 to 2014 study period, SNAP redemptions had a positive average estimated impact on county-level employment in non-metro counties, but no measurable impact in metro counties. During the Great Recession and its immediate aftermath (2008 to 2010), SNAP redemptions had a positive impact on employment in both metro and nonmetro counties, though the impacts per dollar spent were larger in nonmetro counties. During the recession, the impacts of SNAP were larger per dollar spent than the impacts of all other Federal and State government transfer payments combined. The results were presented to Stephen Vaden, the USDA General Counsel on June 24, 2019.

   Since the end of the Great Recession, growth in population, employment, and per capita income have been slower in nonmetro counties than metro counties, and slowest in the most rural and remote nonmetro areas. ERS provides up-to-date information on rural economic and demographic trends in an annual series, Rural America at a Glance. The latest report noted that nonmetropolitan America encompasses a diverse set of counties, from more urban counties with urban populations of up to 50,000 people and counties adjacent to a metro area, to completely rural counties and counties that are remote from metro areas. These areas include nearly three-fourths of the land area and 14 percent of the population of the United States. Demographic and economic trends in nonmetro counties have been less favorable that those in metro America, but employment has grown since 2010 in all types of nonmetro counties except the most rural and remote counties, and poverty has declined in all types of counties since 2013. The findings were communicated via a webinar and in briefings to senior USDA policy makers. A new Survey of Irrigation Organizations will provide a foundation for understanding local irrigation decisions and their impact on drought resilience. Increasing demands for limited water resources, and concerns for agricultural drought resilience under heightened water scarcity, has prompted renewed interest in water data development at the agricultural district scale. Working with partners both inside and beyond USDA, ERS is developing a national survey of irrigation organizations to provide the first updated dataset of local water-supply management entities since the 1978 Census of Irrigation Organizations. This initiative builds on ERS research collaborations addressing regional groundwater management—including managed aquifer recharge in California’s Central Valley and the Lower Mississippi alluvial aquifer, and groundwater sustainability in the High Plains. Survey findings and supporting geodatabase will inform future research efforts as well as an array of Federal and State program activities. The survey will be implemented, and data collection will begin in FY 2020.

   Dropped conservation contract practices are an indication of lower on-farm benefits. USDA working lands programs have resulted in hundreds of thousands of conservation contracts; these contracts represent voluntary agreements between USDA and farmers to implement conservation practices in exchange for technical and financial assistance. Most conservation contract practices are implemented as planned. An ERS report examines the contracts of the 10 to 20 percent of the practices that are dropped to better understand program implementation. Results show that these dropped practices are more likely to yield low on-farm benefits, information which can help program managers evaluate and adjust program incentives.

   Adoption of drought-tolerant corn is expanding at a rate similar to early adoption of insect-resistant and herbicide-resistant corn. Federal natural disaster and crop insurance payments to U.S. farmers are often the result of drought that results in crop yield losses and crop failures. In 2012 genetically engineered drought resilient (DT) corn was introduced, becoming widely available in 2013. An ERS report examines the development, adoption, and management of DT corn in the U.S. in 2016. Results show that over one-fifth of U.S. corn acreage was planted to DT corn in 2016 and DT corn made up roughly 40 percent of corn acreage in some drought-prone States. In addition, results show the use of DT corn is often accompanied by other conservation practices; 62 percent of DT corn fields used tillage methods that minimally disturb soils.

4. 2024

   For FY24, data from ERS agreements helped generate five Administrative Publications, 22 Economic Information Bulletins, 15 Economic Research Reports, 94 Outlook Newsletters, and four Technical Bulletins.

Single Audit Applies (2 CFR Part 200 Subpart F):

For additional information on single audit requirements for this program, review the current Compliance Supplement.

1. 7 U.S.C. § 3318(b).
2. 7 U.S.C. § 3318(c).